Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50%-3.75%. April 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year—the largest annual gain in nearly three years—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, while core CPI climbed to 2.8%. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that policymakers see limited scope for easing. This 93.5% implied probability of no move reflects broad consensus on holding the restrictive stance, though softer May CPI data due June 10 or unexpectedly dovish signals at the June 16-17 meeting could still introduce modest downside risk to rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,542,131 Vol.
$5,542,131 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,542,131 Vol.
$5,542,131 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
$540,756 Vol.
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$419,504 Vol.
3%
Keine Änderung
$654,513 Vol.
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$3,401,523 Vol.
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$525,835 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50%-3.75%. April 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year—the largest annual gain in nearly three years—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, while core CPI climbed to 2.8%. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that policymakers see limited scope for easing. This 93.5% implied probability of no move reflects broad consensus on holding the restrictive stance, though softer May CPI data due June 10 or unexpectedly dovish signals at the June 16-17 meeting could still introduce modest downside risk to rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,542,131Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50%-3.75%. April 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year—the largest annual gain in nearly three years—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, while core CPI climbed to 2.8%. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that policymakers see limited scope for easing. This 93.5% implied probability of no move reflects broad consensus on holding the restrictive stance, though softer May CPI data due June 10 or unexpectedly dovish signals at the June 16-17 meeting could still introduce modest downside risk to rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,542,131Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50%-3.75%. April 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year—the largest annual gain in nearly three years—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, while core CPI climbed to 2.8%. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that policymakers see limited scope for easing. This 93.5% implied probability of no move reflects broad consensus on holding the restrictive stance, though softer May CPI data due June 10 or unexpectedly dovish signals at the June 16-17 meeting could still introduce modest downside risk to rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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