Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 amid energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls have anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and readings still well above the Fed's 2% goal, traders see limited scope for shifts in either direction. The central bank's data-dependent stance and recent communications emphasizing caution reinforce this consensus. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor indicators or a surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.9%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 2.8%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,634,836 Vol.
$5,634,836 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.9%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 2.8%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,634,836 Vol.
$5,634,836 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
$561,034 Vol.
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$435,501 Vol.
3%
Keine Änderung
$669,312 Vol.
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$3,414,561 Vol.
4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$557,154 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 amid energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls have anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and readings still well above the Fed's 2% goal, traders see limited scope for shifts in either direction. The central bank's data-dependent stance and recent communications emphasizing caution reinforce this consensus. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor indicators or a surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,634,836Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 amid energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls have anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and readings still well above the Fed's 2% goal, traders see limited scope for shifts in either direction. The central bank's data-dependent stance and recent communications emphasizing caution reinforce this consensus. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor indicators or a surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,634,836Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 amid energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls have anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and readings still well above the Fed's 2% goal, traders see limited scope for shifts in either direction. The central bank's data-dependent stance and recent communications emphasizing caution reinforce this consensus. A sharper slowdown in May or June labor indicators or a surprise cooling in upcoming CPI prints could open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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