Trader consensus slightly favors the USA at 40.5% implied probability to win Group D, with Türkiye nipping at 35.5%, driven by the hosts' home-field edge across all three group stage matches—at SoFi Stadium versus Paraguay on June 12, Lumen Field against Australia on June 19, and back in LA facing Türkiye—offset by the USMNT's shaky recent form, including 5-2 and 2-0 friendly losses to Belgium and Portugal. Türkiye's momentum stems from gritty playoff qualification triumphs over Romania (1-0) and Kosovo (1-0) in late March, plus a 2-1 friendly win over the USA last year, bolstered by Arda Güler's sizzling recent goals. Paraguay (17.5%) and Australia (7.4%) lurk as spoilers, with the former holding a narrow friendly defeat to the hosts but injury concerns alongside Türkiye's, while the Socceroos boast healthier key players despite underdog status in this balanced group.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUSA 41%
Türkei 36%
Paraguay 18%
Australien 7.7%
$43,348 Vol.
$43,348 Vol.
USA
41%
Türkei
36%
Paraguay
18%
Australien
8%
USA 41%
Türkei 36%
Paraguay 18%
Australien 7.7%
$43,348 Vol.
$43,348 Vol.
USA
41%
Türkei
36%
Paraguay
18%
Australien
8%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors the USA at 40.5% implied probability to win Group D, with Türkiye nipping at 35.5%, driven by the hosts' home-field edge across all three group stage matches—at SoFi Stadium versus Paraguay on June 12, Lumen Field against Australia on June 19, and back in LA facing Türkiye—offset by the USMNT's shaky recent form, including 5-2 and 2-0 friendly losses to Belgium and Portugal. Türkiye's momentum stems from gritty playoff qualification triumphs over Romania (1-0) and Kosovo (1-0) in late March, plus a 2-1 friendly win over the USA last year, bolstered by Arda Güler's sizzling recent goals. Paraguay (17.5%) and Australia (7.4%) lurk as spoilers, with the former holding a narrow friendly defeat to the hosts but injury concerns alongside Türkiye's, while the Socceroos boast healthier key players despite underdog status in this balanced group.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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