Google I/O on May 19–20 stands as the decisive catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release to 90% on that date. Recent credible leaks of model strings inside the Gemini iOS app, Google AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks have confirmed an imminent Flash variant optimized for sub-200-millisecond latency and 15–20x lower inference costs than comparable models like GPT-5.5. These signals, combined with DeepMind’s accelerated cadence after the Gemini 3.1 series earlier this year, have aligned trader consensus around an official announcement and public availability during the keynote. While historical conference timing and pre-release testing patterns support the current odds, any last-minute delays or a surprise skip to a 3.5 designation could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 19 90%
May 18 4.3%
May 20 3.7%
May 22 1.0%
$318,615 Vol.
$318,615 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
90%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 90%
May 18 4.3%
May 20 3.7%
May 22 1.0%
$318,615 Vol.
$318,615 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 16
$7,921 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$13,051 Vol.
1%
May 18
$38,234 Vol.
4%
May 19
$115,400 Vol.
90%
May 20
$18,200 Vol.
4%
May 21
$10,759 Vol.
1%
May 22
$14,206 Vol.
1%
May 23
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$4,895 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$3,317 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$4,019 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$4,486 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$3,153 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$2,395 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$6,223 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$21,931 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O on May 19–20 stands as the decisive catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release to 90% on that date. Recent credible leaks of model strings inside the Gemini iOS app, Google AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks have confirmed an imminent Flash variant optimized for sub-200-millisecond latency and 15–20x lower inference costs than comparable models like GPT-5.5. These signals, combined with DeepMind’s accelerated cadence after the Gemini 3.1 series earlier this year, have aligned trader consensus around an official announcement and public availability during the keynote. While historical conference timing and pre-release testing patterns support the current odds, any last-minute delays or a surprise skip to a 3.5 designation could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$318,615Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O on May 19–20 stands as the decisive catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release to 90% on that date. Recent credible leaks of model strings inside the Gemini iOS app, Google AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks have confirmed an imminent Flash variant optimized for sub-200-millisecond latency and 15–20x lower inference costs than comparable models like GPT-5.5. These signals, combined with DeepMind’s accelerated cadence after the Gemini 3.1 series earlier this year, have aligned trader consensus around an official announcement and public availability during the keynote. While historical conference timing and pre-release testing patterns support the current odds, any last-minute delays or a surprise skip to a 3.5 designation could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$318,615Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google I/O on May 19–20 stands as the decisive catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release to 90% on that date. Recent credible leaks of model strings inside the Gemini iOS app, Google AI Studio metadata, and anonymous LM Arena benchmarks have confirmed an imminent Flash variant optimized for sub-200-millisecond latency and 15–20x lower inference costs than comparable models like GPT-5.5. These signals, combined with DeepMind’s accelerated cadence after the Gemini 3.1 series earlier this year, have aligned trader consensus around an official announcement and public availability during the keynote. While historical conference timing and pre-release testing patterns support the current odds, any last-minute delays or a surprise skip to a 3.5 designation could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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