Record early voting in Georgia, already ahead of 2022 midterm paces in several counties with over 1.7 million ballots cast by late October, anchors trader expectations for total first-round participation near 4 million. Lower mail ballot acceptance compared with prior cycles, driven by voter skepticism, offsets some in-person gains and keeps the 4M-4.2M range as the narrow leader at 29 percent. The competitive Ossoff-Collins contest, with the Democratic incumbent holding a consistent polling edge, sustains base mobilization without the surge typical of presidential years. Final Election Day volume, remaining early in-person trends through October 30, and any late shifts in suburban turnout could still alter the outcome within the tight band of probabilities.