Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from major global systems, indicate a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Beijing on October 14 under clear skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 48% for 21°C and 31.5% for 22°C. This reflects a modest warming trend after cooler conditions earlier in the week, with dry air and high pressure suppressing cloud cover or precipitation. October climatology places the long-term average high near 20°C, so current guidance sits slightly above baseline but within normal variability for mid-month. Short-term model agreement remains strong, though minor shifts in wind direction or boundary-layer mixing could adjust the peak by 1°C before resolution.