Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 12. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 12. Juli?
34°C 36%
33°C 34%
32°C 15%
35°C 13%
NEU
NEU
12. Juli 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
15%
33°C
34%
34°C
36%
35°C
13%
36°C
5%
37°C or higher
<1%
34°C 36%
33°C 34%
32°C 15%
35°C 13%
NEU
NEU
12. Juli 2026
27°C or below
$823 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$812 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$337 Vol.
1%
30°C
$437 Vol.
1%
31°C
$177 Vol.
5%
32°C
$362 Vol.
15%
33°C
$470 Vol.
34%
34°C
$104 Vol.
36%
35°C
$167 Vol.
13%
36°C
$188 Vol.
5%
37°C or higher
$258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$4,132Enddatum
12. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,132Enddatum
12. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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