Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on July 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 4?
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 13%
40°C 6.6%
NEU
NEU
4. Juli 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
13%
38°C
50%
39°C
28%
40°C
7%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 13%
40°C 6.6%
NEU
NEU
4. Juli 2026
33°C or below
$559 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$269 Vol.
1%
35°C
$89 Vol.
1%
36°C
$580 Vol.
4%
37°C
$410 Vol.
13%
38°C
$620 Vol.
50%
39°C
$668 Vol.
28%
40°C
$67 Vol.
7%
41°C
$20 Vol.
2%
42°C
$140 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$268 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$3,690Enddatum
4. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,690Enddatum
4. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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