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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Juli 1

Juli 2

Juli 3

Juli 4

Juli 1

Juli 2

Juli 3

Juli 4

26°C 28%

27°C 22%

25°C 19%

28°C 14%

Polymarket
NEU

26°C 28%

27°C 22%

25°C 19%

28°C 14%

Polymarket
NEU

22°C or below

$56 Vol.

1%

23°C

$51 Vol.

2%

24°C

$25 Vol.

2%

25°C

$19 Vol.

19%

26°C

$1,957 Vol.

28%

27°C

$13 Vol.

27%

28°C

$0 Vol.

14%

29°C

$55 Vol.

<1%

30°C

$295 Vol.

<1%

31°C

$170 Vol.

1%

32°C or higher

$46 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 4 minimum temperature centers on 26–27°C as leading outcomes because short-term forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate overnight lows near 26°C under mainly cloudy skies with light rain patches, consistent with typical July nocturnal cooling in the region’s subtropical monsoon climate. Recent upper-air patterns and high humidity have limited radiative cooling, keeping minima close to seasonal averages around 26–27°C while the broader July–September outlook from HKO points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall. Model consensus shows little support for extremes below 25°C or above 28°C absent a sudden surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly flow, leaving the 25°C and 28°C brackets as secondary possibilities tied to forecast adjustments in the next 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,688
Enddatum
4. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 4 minimum temperature centers on 26–27°C as leading outcomes because short-term forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate overnight lows near 26°C under mainly cloudy skies with light rain patches, consistent with typical July nocturnal cooling in the region’s subtropical monsoon climate. Recent upper-air patterns and high humidity have limited radiative cooling, keeping minima close to seasonal averages around 26–27°C while the broader July–September outlook from HKO points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall. Model consensus shows little support for extremes below 25°C or above 28°C absent a sudden surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly flow, leaving the 25°C and 28°C brackets as secondary possibilities tied to forecast adjustments in the next 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,688
Enddatum
4. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „26°C" mit 28%, gefolgt von „27°C" mit 27%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 2, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?" ist „26°C" mit 28%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „27°C" mit 27%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.