The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered the first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor on March 9, 2026, via a near-unanimous vote amid wartime conditions and domestic pressures. This resolved the long-anticipated succession process, with interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian managing continuity. Trader consensus on markets tied to a change by later 2026 dates reflects the completed outcome, though further shifts remain possible through Assembly actions, security establishment influence, or external developments within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$23,652,638 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
22. August
<1%
31. August
1%
30. September
5%
31. Oktober
8%
30. November
10%
31. Dezember
17%
30. Juni 2027
26%
$23,652,638 Vol.
22. August
$63,413 Vol.
<1%
31. August
$1,200,499 Vol.
1%
30. September
$466,794 Vol.
5%
31. Oktober
$19,955 Vol.
8%
30. November
$14,783 Vol.
10%
31. Dezember
$4,035,563 Vol.
17%
30. Juni 2027
$243,441 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered the first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor on March 9, 2026, via a near-unanimous vote amid wartime conditions and domestic pressures. This resolved the long-anticipated succession process, with interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian managing continuity. Trader consensus on markets tied to a change by later 2026 dates reflects the completed outcome, though further shifts remain possible through Assembly actions, security establishment influence, or external developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volumen
$23,652,638Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered the first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor on March 9, 2026, via a near-unanimous vote amid wartime conditions and domestic pressures. This resolved the long-anticipated succession process, with interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian managing continuity. Trader consensus on markets tied to a change by later 2026 dates reflects the completed outcome, though further shifts remain possible through Assembly actions, security establishment influence, or external developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,652,638Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered the first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor on March 9, 2026, via a near-unanimous vote amid wartime conditions and domestic pressures. This resolved the long-anticipated succession process, with interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and President Masoud Pezeshkian managing continuity. Trader consensus on markets tied to a change by later 2026 dates reflects the completed outcome, though further shifts remain possible through Assembly actions, security establishment influence, or external developments within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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