Persistent internal pressure within South Korea’s main opposition People Power Party has lifted the implied probability of Jang Dong-hyeok departing the leadership by June 30 to 63.5 percent. Escalating criticism from candidates and party factions ahead of the June 3 local elections, including a public resignation demand by Busan mayoral hopeful Joo Gwang-deok on May 11, has highlighted low approval ratings and factional rifts. Jang has repeatedly declined to step down early, instead pledging to accept voter judgment after the contests, yet analysts point to the high likelihood of a post-election no-confidence vote or leadership challenge that could force a change before the end of June. These near-term electoral and party dynamics continue to shape trader assessments of the timeline.