The Democratic Party of Korea holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the June 3, 2026 local elections because its national approval rating has remained near 45 percent since President Lee Jae-myung took office in 2025, while the People Power Party lingers around 23 percent amid internal leadership strains and difficulty recruiting fresh candidates. Recent polls show Democratic nominees ahead by double digits in key races for Seoul and Busan mayors, reflecting continued voter preference for the ruling party one year after the previous administration’s collapse. Although the gap has narrowed modestly in the final weeks, the opposition’s reliance on incumbents in traditional strongholds limits its ability to close the overall seat advantage. Late shifts remain possible only if turnout surges sharply in conservative regions or if new scandals alter the final campaign dynamic before voting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSouth Korean court sentences former president Yoon to 5 years in prison on martial law charges
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 99%1%
A South Korean court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison for charges related to his martial law decree, marking a significant legal defeat for the conservative leader and reinforcing the Democratic Party of Korea's political advantage ahead of the local elections.
Democratic Party floor spokesperson praises prosecutors’ death‑penalty request for Yoon
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 99%2%
A Democratic Party spokesperson publicly welcomed the prosecutors’ move, reinforcing the party’s tough stance on the former PPP president and further shifting market sentiment toward the DP.
South Korean President Lee meets China’s Xi, pledges stronger ties amid regional tensions
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 98%1%
President Lee Jae Myung’s high‑level visit to Beijing and agreement on cooperation underscored diplomatic stability for the governing Democratic Party, reinforcing voter confidence and nudging the DP price upward.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 2%1%
The court’s decision to oust the police chief tied to Yoon’s martial‑law episode further implicated the People Power Party in the 2024 crisis, reinforcing the downward pressure on PPP’s odds.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
The same prosecutorial move was interpreted as a blow to the People Power Party, causing traders to shift confidence to the Democratic Party, raising DP’s price from 95% to 96% the next day.
President Lee meets Xi in Beijing, pledges stronger Korea‑China trade ties
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 98%3%
President Lee Jae Myung’s high‑profile visit to China underscored the Democratic administration’s diplomatic successes, improving its image domestically and contributing to a rise in DP confidence.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 3%1%
Prosecutors asked for the maximum punishment for ex‑President Yoon Suk Yeol, a leading figure of the People Power Party, intensifying public backlash against the PPP and lifting Democratic Party confidence ahead of local elections.
South Korean President Lee returns to presidential palace avoided by predecessor
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
President Lee’s symbolic return to the Blue House highlighted the new administration’s break from Yoon’s legacy, boosting confidence in the Democratic Party and contributing to a slight rise in DP’s price.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 97%1%
The Constitutional Court removed the police chief for supporting former President Yoon's martial law imposition, highlighting the legal and political consequences faced by Yoon's administration. This event further weakened the People Power Party's standing and bolstered confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea's dominance.
South Korean President Lee returns to presidential palace avoided by predecessor
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 97%1%
President Lee Jae Myung moved the presidential office back to the traditional Blue House, reversing former President Yoon Suk Yeol's relocation and symbolizing a political shift favoring the Democratic Party of Korea. This move underscored the DP's consolidation of power and likely contributed to increased market confidence in the DP's electoral prospects.
South Korean prosecutor seeks death sentence for ex-leader Yoon over martial law decree
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
An independent counsel demanded the death sentence for former President Yoon Suk Yeol on rebellion charges related to his 2024 martial law decree, marking a critical moment in South Korea's political crisis. This event reinforced the market's confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) as Yoon's conservative People Power Party (PPP) faced significant legal and political setbacks.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung returns to traditional presidential palace
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 94%1%
President Lee Jae Myung moved the presidential office back to Cheong Wa Dae, signaling a return to traditional governance and distancing from predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol’s controversial tenure. This reinforced political stability under the Democratic Party but did not cause major market price changes.
South Korean President Lee returns to presidential palace avoided by predecessor
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 97%2%
President Lee Jae Myung moved back to the traditional presidential palace, Cheong Wa Dae, reversing his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol's relocation. This symbolic act reinforced Lee's legitimacy and the Democratic Party's consolidation of power, supporting the DP's strong market position.
North Korea accuses South Korea of drone incursions, heightening security concerns
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 3%1%
The accusation and ensuing diplomatic friction raised doubts about the incumbent government’s handling of security, prompting a modest decline in the People Power Party’s odds.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%4%
Prosecutors demanded the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol for his role in the 2024 martial law attempt, highlighting the severity of his political downfall and reinforcing public and political support for the Democratic Party of Korea. This event coincided with a temporary dip and recovery in DP market prices, reflecting market reactions to the legal developments surrounding Yoon.
South Korean court sentences former President Yoon to five years in prison
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) dips to 93%3%
A court delivered a five-year prison sentence to former President Yoon for his role in the martial law crisis, further cementing the political consequences for the conservative bloc.
President Lee Jae‑myung meets Xi Jinping in Beijing to boost ties
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
Lee’s high‑profile visit to China and the signing of multiple cooperation agreements signaled strong diplomatic momentum for the ruling Democratic Party, nudging its market price upward.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung returns to traditional presidential palace, signaling political consolidation
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
President Lee's move back to Cheong Wa Dae, avoided by his predecessor Yoon, symbolized a restoration of traditional governance and strengthened the Democratic Party's image, contributing to increased market confidence in the DP ahead of the local elections.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) dips to 94%1%
The Constitutional Court removed the impeached police chief for supporting former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief martial law imposition in December 2024. This event underscored ongoing political instability but did not shift the local election market significantly, as the Democratic Party remained favored.
Democratic Party of Korea welcomes prosecution's death penalty request for Yoon
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%1%
The Democratic Party of Korea publicly supported the prosecution's call for the death penalty, framing it as a necessary step for justice and constitutional order, which bolstered their political position.
South Korean court sentences former President Yoon to 5 years in prison on martial law charges
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 96%1%
The sentencing of former President Yoon to five years in prison for his martial law decree marked a significant legal defeat for the conservative faction and bolstered the Democratic Party's standing ahead of the local elections, contributing to the high market confidence in the DP's victory.
Prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) dips to 94%1%
Prosecutors requested the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol during his trial for insurrection related to the 2024 martial law declaration. This high-profile legal action reinforced the political damage to the conservative opposition.
Former President Yoon Suk‑yeol sentenced to five years in prison
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%1%
A Seoul court handed former President Yoon a five‑year prison term for his role in the 2024 martial‑law episode, underscoring the Democratic Party’s dominance and diminishing the People Power Party’s standing ahead of local elections.
Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial‑law involvement
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 3%2%
The court’s decision to oust the police chief implicated in Yoon’s 2024 martial‑law episode further delegitimized the conservative establishment, reinforcing the Democratic Party’s narrative of restoring democratic order and pushing PPP support lower.
Market confidence peaks in Democratic Party amid ongoing Yoon trials and political turmoil
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%3%
As trials and investigations into former President Yoon continued, market confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea peaked, reflecting expectations that the party would dominate the upcoming local elections. The People Power Party’s price declined to its lowest point, indicating diminished electoral prospects amid the scandal.
South Korean court sentences former president Yoon to 5 years in prison
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 3%3%
On January 30, a South Korean court sentenced former President Yoon to five years in prison for charges related to the martial law decree. This judicial decision further weakened the PPP's position, reflected in the market price dropping to a low of 3% by January 31, while the DP's price rose to 95%.
South Korean court sentences former President Yoon to 5 years in prison on martial law charges
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%3%
A court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison related to his martial law declaration, confirming his political downfall and strengthening the Democratic Party's position. This verdict caused the Democratic Party of Korea's market price to rise sharply from 92% to 95%, while the People Power Party's price dropped from 7% to 2%.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
People Power Party (PPP) drops to 3%5%
Prosecutors formally requested the maximum penalty for ex‑President Yoon Suk‑yeol, intensifying public backlash against the conservative People Power Party and rallying support for the ruling Democratic Party ahead of the local elections.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 94%3%
The Constitutional Court removed the impeached police chief for supporting former President Yoon’s martial law declaration, underscoring the legal and political consequences of the 2024 crisis. This event further damaged the conservative party's standing and bolstered confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea ahead of the local elections.
North Korea launches ballistic missiles ahead of its Workers’ Party congress
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 5%2%
The missile launches heightened security concerns and shifted public focus toward national defense, which traditionally benefits the ruling liberal party’s narrative while further hurting the conservative PPP’s standing.
North Korea announces its Workers’ Party congress will be held in late February
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 95%1%
The announcement of a major political congress in North Korea heightened regional security concerns, prompting South Korean voters to favor the incumbent liberal government for stability, which lifted DP’s price and further depressed PPP’s outlook.
South Korean prosecutors intensify legal actions against former President Yoon
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 5%1%
Prosecutors continued to press serious charges against Yoon Suk Yeol, including abuse of power and manipulation of investigations, reinforcing the perception of the PPP's weakened political standing. This contributed to the sustained low market price for the PPP around 5-6%, while the DP maintained high confidence.
President Lee Jae‑Myung returns to the Blue House for the first time since 2022
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 94%4%
Lee’s symbolic move back to the traditional presidential palace signaled a consolidation of liberal power and a break from his predecessor’s controversial tenure, bolstering confidence in the Democratic Party’s prospects in the upcoming local elections.
South Korean Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 93%1%
The Constitutional Court removed the impeached police chief for supporting former President Yoon's martial law declaration, reinforcing the legal and political consequences faced by Yoon's allies. This event increased market confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea from 92% to 93% and decreased the People Power Party's price from 8% to 7%.
South Korean President Lee returns to traditional presidential palace
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 93%2%
President Lee Jae Myung's return to the traditional presidential palace, Cheong Wa Dae, symbolized a restoration of stability and a break from the previous administration's controversial legacy. This event bolstered confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea, supporting its market price increase from 91% to 93%.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 6%3%
The aggressive legal move against Yoon heightened the perceived risk for the People Power Party, causing a sharp drop in its market price as investors feared lasting damage to the party’s reputation.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 92%2%
Prosecutors requested the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is on trial for leading an insurrection by attempting to impose martial law in December 2024. This heightened political tensions and reinforced negative perceptions of the conservative People Power Party, contributing to a decline in its market price and strengthening the Democratic Party of Korea's position.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 6%2%
On January 13, prosecutors demanded the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol for leading an insurrection related to his December 2024 martial law decree. This heightened legal pressure on Yoon, a key figure of the People Power Party, undermined the party's prospects and contributed to a decline in its market price from 8% to 6%.
President Lee Jae Myung returns to the Blue House, ending Yoon’s relocation of the presidential office
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 94%3%
Lee’s first commute back to Cheong Wa Dae highlighted the new administration’s control and contrasted with Yoon’s controversial tenure, bolstering voter confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea ahead of the local elections.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 91%1%
Prosecutors requested the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol for leading an insurrection, highlighting the severity of his legal troubles and diminishing his political standing. This development bolstered confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea, which opposed Yoon, causing its market price to rise from 90% to 91% and the People Power Party's price to fall from 9% to 8%.
President Lee Jae Myung returns to the historic Blue House for the first time since taking office
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 94%2%
Lee’s symbolic move back to the traditional presidential palace underscored the Democratic Party’s control of the executive and was portrayed as a break from the previous conservative administration, reinforcing DP’s lead in the market.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for former President Yoon on insurrection charge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 92%2%
Prosecutors’ request for the maximum penalty against former President Yoon, a figure strongly associated with the conservative PPP, prompted widespread condemnation from PPP leaders and praise from Democratic Party officials, shifting voter sentiment toward the DP.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visits China amid regional tensions
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 90%1%
President Lee's visit to China aimed to strengthen bilateral ties and discuss peace on the Korean Peninsula amid rising tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan. This diplomatic engagement enhanced Lee's leadership image and the Democratic Party of Korea's credibility ahead of the local elections.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visits China amid regional tensions
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 90%1%
President Lee’s visit to China aimed to strengthen bilateral ties and discuss peace on the Korean Peninsula, enhancing the Democratic Party’s image as a stabilizing force. This diplomatic engagement helped maintain the DP’s market price near 90%.
Reform Party and Progressive Party remain at record lows
Reform Party (RP) dips to 0%1%
By mid-December, the Reform Party and Progressive Party failed to gain traction, with their market shares remaining at 1%, indicating that voters were largely ignoring these smaller parties in favor of the Democratic Party.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief over martial law involvement
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 89%1%
The Constitutional Court removed the impeached police chief for supporting former President Yoon's martial law imposition, highlighting the judiciary's role in upholding democratic norms. This event further distanced the current government from the previous administration's crisis, strengthening the Democratic Party of Korea's position.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung returns to traditional presidential palace
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 89%1%
President Lee Jae Myung moved the presidential office back to Cheong Wa Dae, reversing his predecessor Yoon’s relocation. This symbolic act signaled a return to stability and the Democratic Party’s consolidation of power, supporting the DP’s market price near 89-90%.
North Korea’s missile launches raise regional tensions ahead of upcoming party congress
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 90%1%
Heightened security concerns shifted some market focus to the Democratic Party’s handling of foreign policy, sustaining its price gains while keeping Reform Party (RP) and Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) at near‑zero levels.
Democratic Party celebrates South Korea’s first Grammy win for K‑pop song “Golden”
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 89%1%
The cultural triumph was highlighted by the Democratic Party as evidence of Korea’s global influence under its leadership, further bolstering DP confidence and keeping rival parties’ odds low.
Rebuilding Korea Party experiences volatility amid political realignment
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) dips to 1%2%
The Rebuilding Korea Party saw a brief spike in interest followed by a decline, reflecting the broader instability and consolidation of the political landscape as voters gravitated toward the established Democratic Party.
South Korean prosecutor seeks death sentence for ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol over martial law decree
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) rises to 89%1%
An independent counsel demanded the death sentence for former President Yoon Suk Yeol on rebellion charges related to his brief imposition of martial law in December 2024. This legal action underscored the political downfall of Yoon and reinforced the legitimacy of the current administration, benefiting the Democratic Party of Korea's standing.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes police chief for supporting martial law
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 8%1%
The Constitutional Court removed the impeached police chief for deploying officers to support Yoon’s martial law imposition, underscoring the illegality of the decree and weakening the conservative camp further. This event contributed to the continued decline in PPP and other smaller parties' market prices.
President Lee Jae‑Myung returns to Cheong Wa Dae, ending Yoon’s office relocation
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) jumps to 89%9%
Lee’s move back to the historic Blue House signalled a break from Yoon’s legacy, energising Democratic voters and pushing DP prices higher while marginalising PPP and minor parties.
Court sentences former President Yoon to five years for martial‑law decree
People Power Party (PPP) rises to 13%4%
A Seoul court handed former President Yoon a five‑year prison term for his role in the December 2024 martial‑law episode, cementing the legal fallout and prompting further erosion of support for the PPP and its allied minor parties.
South Korean court sentences former President Yoon to 5 years in prison on martial law-related charges
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) jumps to 89%9%
The court sentenced Yoon to five years in prison for his role in the martial law crisis, marking the first verdict in multiple trials. This reinforced the market's confidence in the Democratic Party of Korea, which rose from 80% to near 89%, while the PPP and other parties declined further.
Democratic Party of Korea gains momentum as opposition struggles
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) jumps to 88%8%
As the People Power Party and other minor parties faced a collapse in support following the legal developments against Yoon, the Democratic Party of Korea saw its market share rise, reflecting its strengthened position as the dominant political force.
Constitutional Court removes police chief for martial‑law involvement
People Power Party (PPP) dips to 9%1%
The Constitutional Court formally removed Police Chief Cho Ji‑ho for his role in supporting Yoon’s illegal martial‑law deployment, further implicating the PPP‑aligned security apparatus and deepening voter backlash against the party.
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for ex‑President Yoon on insurrection charge
People Power Party (PPP) plunges to 9%41%
Prosecutors asked a court to impose the death penalty on former President Yoon for the 2024 martial‑law incident, prompting a backlash against the conservative People Power Party and lifting the Democratic Party’s odds.
Prosecutors seek death penalty for ex‑President Yoon over martial‑law rebellion
People Power Party (PPP) plunges to 10%40%
South Korean prosecutors filed a request for a death sentence against former President Yoon Suk Yeol on rebellion charges related to his December 2024 martial‑law decree, intensifying the scandal surrounding the conservative People Power Party.
South Korean prosecutor demands death sentence for ex-President Yoon over martial law decree
People Power Party (PPP) plunges to 9%41%
An independent counsel sought the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol on rebellion charges related to his December 2024 martial law imposition, highlighting the severity of his legal troubles and political downfall. This intensified negative sentiment toward Yoon's conservative People Power Party, causing a sharp drop in its market price from 50% to 9%.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung returns to traditional presidential palace
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) jumps to 89%9%
President Lee Jae Myung moved the presidential office back to Cheong Wa Dae, the traditional Blue House, reversing his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol's relocation. This symbolic act signaled a return to established governance norms and boosted confidence in Lee's administration, positively impacting the Democratic Party of Korea's prospects in the local elections.
South Korean prosecutor seeks death sentence for ex-leader Yoon over martial law decree
People Power Party (PPP) plunges to 9%41%
The demand for the death penalty against former President Yoon Suk Yeol intensified the political crisis for the conservative People Power Party, causing its market share to drop sharply as the public and political establishment distanced themselves from the former leader.






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