Traders assign a 98.8% probability that Donald Trump will remain President through June 30, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or health-related succession triggers. No congressional votes or committee actions have advanced removal mechanisms under the Constitution, and recent legislative calendars show no fast-track pathways that could force an exit within six weeks. Historical precedents confirm that presidential departures via resignation or conviction typically require months of proceedings, even amid intense partisan pressure. While an unforeseen health event or major scandal could theoretically alter timelines, current institutional and political realities make such rapid shifts highly improbable before the deadline.