Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and expected intensification, represent the main near-term driver pushing June 2026 global surface temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This follows a weak La Niña fade and aligns with May 2026 ranking as the second-warmest May on record, sustaining elevated sea-surface temperatures amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. Model consensus from NMME and IRI indicates moderate warming influence for boreal summer, though June's precise outcome hinges on rapid atmospheric coupling and regional variability; the tight spread between 1.10–1.14°C and 1.15–1.19°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in early-season ENSO impacts versus baseline cooling from prior neutral conditions. Updated monthly releases from NOAA and Copernicus will refine resolution criteria shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 49%
1.10–1.14ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
<1.10ºC 4%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC
49%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 49%
1.10–1.14ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
<1.10ºC 4%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$315 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$422 Vol.
41%
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 Vol.
49%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,573 Vol.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,253 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$832 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and expected intensification, represent the main near-term driver pushing June 2026 global surface temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This follows a weak La Niña fade and aligns with May 2026 ranking as the second-warmest May on record, sustaining elevated sea-surface temperatures amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. Model consensus from NMME and IRI indicates moderate warming influence for boreal summer, though June's precise outcome hinges on rapid atmospheric coupling and regional variability; the tight spread between 1.10–1.14°C and 1.15–1.19°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in early-season ENSO impacts versus baseline cooling from prior neutral conditions. Updated monthly releases from NOAA and Copernicus will refine resolution criteria shortly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$4,450Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and expected intensification, represent the main near-term driver pushing June 2026 global surface temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This follows a weak La Niña fade and aligns with May 2026 ranking as the second-warmest May on record, sustaining elevated sea-surface temperatures amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. Model consensus from NMME and IRI indicates moderate warming influence for boreal summer, though June's precise outcome hinges on rapid atmospheric coupling and regional variability; the tight spread between 1.10–1.14°C and 1.15–1.19°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in early-season ENSO impacts versus baseline cooling from prior neutral conditions. Updated monthly releases from NOAA and Copernicus will refine resolution criteria shortly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$4,450Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and expected intensification, represent the main near-term driver pushing June 2026 global surface temperature anomalies toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This follows a weak La Niña fade and aligns with May 2026 ranking as the second-warmest May on record, sustaining elevated sea-surface temperatures amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. Model consensus from NMME and IRI indicates moderate warming influence for boreal summer, though June's precise outcome hinges on rapid atmospheric coupling and regional variability; the tight spread between 1.10–1.14°C and 1.15–1.19°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in early-season ENSO impacts versus baseline cooling from prior neutral conditions. Updated monthly releases from NOAA and Copernicus will refine resolution criteria shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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