El Niño conditions are rapidly emerging in the equatorial Pacific as of May 2026, with NOAA and IRI models assigning 82–98% probability for May–July, driving trader uncertainty across the tightly bunched July 2026 global temperature anomaly bins. This developing event, building on 2025’s observed 1.19°C anomaly relative to 1951–1980, is expected to add episodic warmth through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though peak El Niño impacts typically lag into boreal winter. Model ensembles show wide spread in Niño 3.4 strength by summer, creating genuine divergence between moderate outcomes near 1.20–1.24°C and higher excursions above 1.29°C versus cooler realizations below 1.15°C. Long-term anthropogenic forcing provides a rising baseline, while short-term variability in atmospheric circulation and measurement precision around monthly global averages keep probabilities balanced ahead of final July data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJuli 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
Juli 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,10–1,14ºC 44%
>1,29ºC 43%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
42%
1,10–1,14ºC
44%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
43%
>1,29ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,10–1,14ºC 44%
>1,29ºC 43%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
$59 Vol.
42%
1,10–1,14ºC
$49 Vol.
44%
1,15–1,19ºC
$41 Vol.
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
$62 Vol.
43%
>1,29ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions are rapidly emerging in the equatorial Pacific as of May 2026, with NOAA and IRI models assigning 82–98% probability for May–July, driving trader uncertainty across the tightly bunched July 2026 global temperature anomaly bins. This developing event, building on 2025’s observed 1.19°C anomaly relative to 1951–1980, is expected to add episodic warmth through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though peak El Niño impacts typically lag into boreal winter. Model ensembles show wide spread in Niño 3.4 strength by summer, creating genuine divergence between moderate outcomes near 1.20–1.24°C and higher excursions above 1.29°C versus cooler realizations below 1.15°C. Long-term anthropogenic forcing provides a rising baseline, while short-term variability in atmospheric circulation and measurement precision around monthly global averages keep probabilities balanced ahead of final July data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$303Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions are rapidly emerging in the equatorial Pacific as of May 2026, with NOAA and IRI models assigning 82–98% probability for May–July, driving trader uncertainty across the tightly bunched July 2026 global temperature anomaly bins. This developing event, building on 2025’s observed 1.19°C anomaly relative to 1951–1980, is expected to add episodic warmth through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though peak El Niño impacts typically lag into boreal winter. Model ensembles show wide spread in Niño 3.4 strength by summer, creating genuine divergence between moderate outcomes near 1.20–1.24°C and higher excursions above 1.29°C versus cooler realizations below 1.15°C. Long-term anthropogenic forcing provides a rising baseline, while short-term variability in atmospheric circulation and measurement precision around monthly global averages keep probabilities balanced ahead of final July data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$303Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions are rapidly emerging in the equatorial Pacific as of May 2026, with NOAA and IRI models assigning 82–98% probability for May–July, driving trader uncertainty across the tightly bunched July 2026 global temperature anomaly bins. This developing event, building on 2025’s observed 1.19°C anomaly relative to 1951–1980, is expected to add episodic warmth through ocean-atmosphere coupling, though peak El Niño impacts typically lag into boreal winter. Model ensembles show wide spread in Niño 3.4 strength by summer, creating genuine divergence between moderate outcomes near 1.20–1.24°C and higher excursions above 1.29°C versus cooler realizations below 1.15°C. Long-term anthropogenic forcing provides a rising baseline, while short-term variability in atmospheric circulation and measurement precision around monthly global averages keep probabilities balanced ahead of final July data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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