A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJuli 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
Juli 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 68%
1,15–1,19ºC 15.8%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.0%
<1,10ºC 1.1%
$51,286 Vol.
$51,286 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
16%
1,20–1,24ºC
68%
1,25–1,29ºC
3%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,20–1,24ºC 68%
1,15–1,19ºC 15.8%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.0%
<1,10ºC 1.1%
$51,286 Vol.
$51,286 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
$8,092 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$3,546 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$9,204 Vol.
16%
1,20–1,24ºC
$12,611 Vol.
68%
1,25–1,29ºC
$13,819 Vol.
3%
>1,29ºC
$4,014 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$51,286Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$51,286Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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