Internal tensions within South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party center on Jung Chung-rae’s leadership, elected chair in August 2025. President Lee Jae-myung’s allies have intensified recruitment of potential rivals ahead of the August 2026 national convention, where renewal of his mandate will be decided. Recurring public missteps, including a controversial merger proposal with the Rebuilding Korea Party and remarks that drew criticism during local election campaigning, have amplified factional friction and diverted focus from strong polling. Traders assess these dynamics and the convention’s outcome as creating a high likelihood of leadership change by year-end, reflected in the 80.5 percent implied probability for his departure.