Moonshot AI’s pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a successor to the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, released in mid-July 2026 with a 1-million-token context window and frontier-competitive benchmarks, forms the core driver of trader sentiment on K4 timing. The Beijing lab’s rapid cadence—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, then K3—has raised expectations for another major release before year-end, yet K4 remains unannounced as of September 2026 amid U.S. export controls and reported workarounds. Strong adoption of K3’s open weights and API pricing has intensified competitive pressure against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, but training scale and regulatory scrutiny introduce meaningful uncertainty around resolution thresholds for late-2026 markets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$17,543 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
31. Oktober 2026
3%
31. Dezember 2026
10%
$17,543 Vol.
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$9,489 Vol.
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31. Dezember 2026
$8,055 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a successor to the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, released in mid-July 2026 with a 1-million-token context window and frontier-competitive benchmarks, forms the core driver of trader sentiment on K4 timing. The Beijing lab’s rapid cadence—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, then K3—has raised expectations for another major release before year-end, yet K4 remains unannounced as of September 2026 amid U.S. export controls and reported workarounds. Strong adoption of K3’s open weights and API pricing has intensified competitive pressure against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, but training scale and regulatory scrutiny introduce meaningful uncertainty around resolution thresholds for late-2026 markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$17,543Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a successor to the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, released in mid-July 2026 with a 1-million-token context window and frontier-competitive benchmarks, forms the core driver of trader sentiment on K4 timing. The Beijing lab’s rapid cadence—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, then K3—has raised expectations for another major release before year-end, yet K4 remains unannounced as of September 2026 amid U.S. export controls and reported workarounds. Strong adoption of K3’s open weights and API pricing has intensified competitive pressure against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, but training scale and regulatory scrutiny introduce meaningful uncertainty around resolution thresholds for late-2026 markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,543Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a successor to the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, released in mid-July 2026 with a 1-million-token context window and frontier-competitive benchmarks, forms the core driver of trader sentiment on K4 timing. The Beijing lab’s rapid cadence—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, then K3—has raised expectations for another major release before year-end, yet K4 remains unannounced as of September 2026 amid U.S. export controls and reported workarounds. Strong adoption of K3’s open weights and API pricing has intensified competitive pressure against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, but training scale and regulatory scrutiny introduce meaningful uncertainty around resolution thresholds for late-2026 markets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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