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icon for Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

icon for Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

5% Chance
Polymarket

$104,130 Vol.

5% Chance
Polymarket

$104,130 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lai Ching-te assumed Taiwan’s presidency in May 2024 following his 2024 election victory and serves a fixed four-year term extending into 2028. As of mid-2026 he remains in office and continues to conduct official duties, including public addresses on cross-strait stability and participation in international forums. An opposition-led impeachment motion advanced through the Legislative Yuan in late 2025 but failed to reach the required two-thirds supermajority when put to a final vote in May 2026. No verified developments involving resignation, health-related incapacity, or other removal mechanisms have occurred. The high trader probability on “No” aligns with these institutional safeguards, the absence of successful legislative or other formal challenges to date, and the structural timeline that places the next scheduled presidential election after the market’s December 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$104,130
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lai Ching-te assumed Taiwan’s presidency in May 2024 following his 2024 election victory and serves a fixed four-year term extending into 2028. As of mid-2026 he remains in office and continues to conduct official duties, including public addresses on cross-strait stability and participation in international forums. An opposition-led impeachment motion advanced through the Legislative Yuan in late 2025 but failed to reach the required two-thirds supermajority when put to a final vote in May 2026. No verified developments involving resignation, health-related incapacity, or other removal mechanisms have occurred. The high trader probability on “No” aligns with these institutional safeguards, the absence of successful legislative or other formal challenges to date, and the structural timeline that places the next scheduled presidential election after the market’s December 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$104,130
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 5% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 5¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 5%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $104.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 7, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" liegt bei 5% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 5% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.