Lai Ching-te began his four-year presidential term in May 2024 and faces no scheduled election until 2028. Taiwan’s constitution permits removal only through resignation, incapacity, or impeachment requiring a two-thirds legislative majority, a threshold the opposition-controlled Yuan has not reached despite recent hearings and a planned May 2026 vote. Those proceedings, triggered by disputes over funding bills, lack sufficient support to advance and are widely viewed as procedural rather than viable. Lai’s recent diplomatic travels, including a May 2026 visit to Eswatini, and consistent public engagement further signal institutional stability. Traders therefore assign an 89 percent probability that he remains in office through December 2026, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete terms absent major scandals or health events.