Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 98.3% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition-led Legislative Yuan's inability to secure the constitutionally required three-fourths majority—approximately 85 votes out of 113 seats—for a successful motion. KMT and TPP hold around 60 seats, far short even with full unity, rendering passage mathematically improbable. Recent review hearings concluded this week with Lai absent, culminating in a symbolic roll-call vote scheduled for May 19, but analysts view it as political theater amid ongoing budget and nomination disputes. While a major scandal or DPP defections could theoretically shift dynamics, institutional barriers and party discipline sustain near-certain expectations of failure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLai Ching-te bis zum 30. Juni angeklagt?
Lai Ching-te bis zum 30. Juni angeklagt?
Ja
$617,794 Vol.
$617,794 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$617,794 Vol.
$617,794 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 98.3% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition-led Legislative Yuan's inability to secure the constitutionally required three-fourths majority—approximately 85 votes out of 113 seats—for a successful motion. KMT and TPP hold around 60 seats, far short even with full unity, rendering passage mathematically improbable. Recent review hearings concluded this week with Lai absent, culminating in a symbolic roll-call vote scheduled for May 19, but analysts view it as political theater amid ongoing budget and nomination disputes. While a major scandal or DPP defections could theoretically shift dynamics, institutional barriers and party discipline sustain near-certain expectations of failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$617,794Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 98.3% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition-led Legislative Yuan's inability to secure the constitutionally required three-fourths majority—approximately 85 votes out of 113 seats—for a successful motion. KMT and TPP hold around 60 seats, far short even with full unity, rendering passage mathematically improbable. Recent review hearings concluded this week with Lai absent, culminating in a symbolic roll-call vote scheduled for May 19, but analysts view it as political theater amid ongoing budget and nomination disputes. While a major scandal or DPP defections could theoretically shift dynamics, institutional barriers and party discipline sustain near-certain expectations of failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$617,794Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 98.3% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition-led Legislative Yuan's inability to secure the constitutionally required three-fourths majority—approximately 85 votes out of 113 seats—for a successful motion. KMT and TPP hold around 60 seats, far short even with full unity, rendering passage mathematically improbable. Recent review hearings concluded this week with Lai absent, culminating in a symbolic roll-call vote scheduled for May 19, but analysts view it as political theater amid ongoing budget and nomination disputes. While a major scandal or DPP defections could theoretically shift dynamics, institutional barriers and party discipline sustain near-certain expectations of failure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen