Forecast models for Buenos Aires on October 13 indicate a minimum near 13°C under persistent overcast skies and easterly flow, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping the diurnal range narrow. Light drizzle or showers add moisture that further moderates temperature drops, consistent with recent regional patterns of suppressed daytime heating and stable boundary-layer conditions. Historical October baselines show typical lows of 10–12°C, yet current steering patterns and cloud cover favor values closer to mid-teens. Market-implied odds near 50% for extremes versus clustered mid-range outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum, with resolution hinging on official observatory readings amid minor model disagreements on wind and precipitation timing.