Current forecasts from official and ensemble models place Jeddah’s overnight minimum on October 7 near 28–31 °C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds. Persistent high humidity (dew points 23–25 °C) from the adjacent Red Sea sharply limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while light northwest winds and minimal cloud cover allow only modest temperature drops after sunset. These conditions compress the diurnal range relative to inland sites, keeping the lowest reading within a narrow band. Historical October climatology shows typical minima around 25–28 °C, but the current stable high-pressure pattern and elevated moisture have supported warmer overnight values. Traders are weighing small model differences in boundary-layer mixing and any late-night cloud increases that could nudge the exact minimum across the 28–31 °C thresholds.