**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.** Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.