**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.