Minnesota’s 2026 open-seat Senate and gubernatorial races both feature Democratic nominees holding polling edges in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2002. Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Lisa Demuth for governor by margins of roughly 2 to 7 points in recent surveys, while Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow or tied contest against Michele Tafoya for the Senate seat vacated by Tina Smith. Post-primary tightening has occurred in both contests, yet Democratic candidates retain advantages among key voting blocs and moderates. Trader pricing for a Democratic sweep reflects these consistent leads across independent polling aggregates, with the lower probabilities assigned to split outcomes or a Republican sweep aligning with the absence of major late-cycle shifts that would alter the current balance. Early voting has begun, leaving limited time for developments that could materially change the implied probabilities.