Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence from public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026—after a US-Israeli airstrike killed Ali Khamenei and reportedly wounded Mojtaba with facial and leg injuries—has intensified trader uncertainty over regime stability. Conflicting intelligence portrays him as gravely incapacitated and delegating to IRGC commanders, though officials insist on minor ailments like a knee fracture, using AI-generated images for appearances. As US-Iran war-end negotiations falter amid hardline pressures, recent reports highlight elite contingency plans for Russia exile akin to Assad's, alongside rumors of an IRGC-led displacement. Key watchpoints include diplomatic breakthroughs or visible leadership assertions that could signal his control or departure from Iranian territory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$1,122,796 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
31. Mai
1%
30. Juni
3%
$1,122,796 Vol.
31. Mai
$101,540 Vol.
1%
30. Juni
$49,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence from public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026—after a US-Israeli airstrike killed Ali Khamenei and reportedly wounded Mojtaba with facial and leg injuries—has intensified trader uncertainty over regime stability. Conflicting intelligence portrays him as gravely incapacitated and delegating to IRGC commanders, though officials insist on minor ailments like a knee fracture, using AI-generated images for appearances. As US-Iran war-end negotiations falter amid hardline pressures, recent reports highlight elite contingency plans for Russia exile akin to Assad's, alongside rumors of an IRGC-led displacement. Key watchpoints include diplomatic breakthroughs or visible leadership assertions that could signal his control or departure from Iranian territory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,122,796Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence from public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026—after a US-Israeli airstrike killed Ali Khamenei and reportedly wounded Mojtaba with facial and leg injuries—has intensified trader uncertainty over regime stability. Conflicting intelligence portrays him as gravely incapacitated and delegating to IRGC commanders, though officials insist on minor ailments like a knee fracture, using AI-generated images for appearances. As US-Iran war-end negotiations falter amid hardline pressures, recent reports highlight elite contingency plans for Russia exile akin to Assad's, alongside rumors of an IRGC-led displacement. Key watchpoints include diplomatic breakthroughs or visible leadership assertions that could signal his control or departure from Iranian territory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,122,796Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence from public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026—after a US-Israeli airstrike killed Ali Khamenei and reportedly wounded Mojtaba with facial and leg injuries—has intensified trader uncertainty over regime stability. Conflicting intelligence portrays him as gravely incapacitated and delegating to IRGC commanders, though officials insist on minor ailments like a knee fracture, using AI-generated images for appearances. As US-Iran war-end negotiations falter amid hardline pressures, recent reports highlight elite contingency plans for Russia exile akin to Assad's, alongside rumors of an IRGC-led displacement. Key watchpoints include diplomatic breakthroughs or visible leadership assertions that could signal his control or departure from Iranian territory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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