Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting Google's pattern of repeated delays for the flagship 3.5 Pro variant first promised for June after its May I/O announcement. Only lighter Flash iterations, including Gemini 3.7 Flash made generally available on August 13, have shipped recently, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on official pages. This positions the outcome ahead of scattered August dates, as the absence of confirmed timelines or developer previews sustains skepticism about an imminent launch amid broader competitive pressure from other labs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo release by August 31 86.0%
August 27 5.0%
August 26 3.7%
August 31 3.6%
$267,405 Vol.
$267,405 Vol.
August 16
<1%
August 17
1%
August 18
1%
August 19
1%
August 20
1%
August 21
<1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
4%
August 27
5%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
<1%
August 31
4%
No release by August 31
86%
No release by August 31 86.0%
August 27 5.0%
August 26 3.7%
August 31 3.6%
$267,405 Vol.
$267,405 Vol.
August 16
<1%
August 17
1%
August 18
1%
August 19
1%
August 20
1%
August 21
<1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
4%
August 27
5%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
<1%
August 31
4%
No release by August 31
86%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31, reflecting Google's pattern of repeated delays for the flagship 3.5 Pro variant first promised for June after its May I/O announcement. Only lighter Flash iterations, including Gemini 3.7 Flash made generally available on August 13, have shipped recently, while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on official pages. This positions the outcome ahead of scattered August dates, as the absence of confirmed timelines or developer previews sustains skepticism about an imminent launch amid broader competitive pressure from other labs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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