Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a market-implied 90.5% probability to OPEC enduring through 2026, reflecting resilience despite the UAE's exit effective May 1, which reduced membership but did not fracture core coordination. Recent OPEC+ decisions, including a May 3 announcement of a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June, underscore ongoing commitment to market stability among key producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, backed by monthly ministerial meetings. This skin-in-the-game pricing prioritizes production quota management amid balanced global oil supply-demand dynamics. Realistic challenges include further defections from quota disputes, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, or sharp price collapses eroding unity, though no such catalysts have materialized in the past two weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a market-implied 90.5% probability to OPEC enduring through 2026, reflecting resilience despite the UAE's exit effective May 1, which reduced membership but did not fracture core coordination. Recent OPEC+ decisions, including a May 3 announcement of a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June, underscore ongoing commitment to market stability among key producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, backed by monthly ministerial meetings. This skin-in-the-game pricing prioritizes production quota management amid balanced global oil supply-demand dynamics. Realistic challenges include further defections from quota disputes, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, or sharp price collapses eroding unity, though no such catalysts have materialized in the past two weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$16,734Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a market-implied 90.5% probability to OPEC enduring through 2026, reflecting resilience despite the UAE's exit effective May 1, which reduced membership but did not fracture core coordination. Recent OPEC+ decisions, including a May 3 announcement of a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June, underscore ongoing commitment to market stability among key producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, backed by monthly ministerial meetings. This skin-in-the-game pricing prioritizes production quota management amid balanced global oil supply-demand dynamics. Realistic challenges include further defections from quota disputes, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, or sharp price collapses eroding unity, though no such catalysts have materialized in the past two weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$16,734Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a market-implied 90.5% probability to OPEC enduring through 2026, reflecting resilience despite the UAE's exit effective May 1, which reduced membership but did not fracture core coordination. Recent OPEC+ decisions, including a May 3 announcement of a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June, underscore ongoing commitment to market stability among key producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, backed by monthly ministerial meetings. This skin-in-the-game pricing prioritizes production quota management amid balanced global oil supply-demand dynamics. Realistic challenges include further defections from quota disputes, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, or sharp price collapses eroding unity, though no such catalysts have materialized in the past two weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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