The European Union's treaty framework, supranational institutions, and single-market integration create substantial structural barriers to dissolution, reflected in the 98.6% trader consensus against the outcome before 2027. No coordinated exit movements or treaty-termination processes have gained traction among member states in recent months, with ongoing policy coordination on enlargement, trade, and security reinforcing continuity. Historical resilience through prior crises further anchors expectations. Even so, an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous withdrawals, a fundamental treaty crisis, or external shocks triggering rapid fragmentation could theoretically shift probabilities, though such paths remain constrained by legal ratification requirements and economic interdependence.