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icon for OpenAI oder Anthropic kündigt rekursive Selbstverbesserung durch...?
Technik·AI

OpenAI oder Anthropic kündigt rekursive Selbstverbesserung durch...?

icon for OpenAI oder Anthropic kündigt rekursive Selbstverbesserung durch...?
Technik·AI

OpenAI oder Anthropic kündigt rekursive Selbstverbesserung durch...?

NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Polymarket

$540 Vol.

Polymarket

31. Oktober 2026

$272 Vol.

10%

31. Dezember 2026

$268 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.

A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$540
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2028
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from both labs underscore accelerating but still supervised AI-driven R&D as the main factor shaping trader views on an imminent announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 essay and September updates show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and directing 26% of model research end-to-end under human oversight, while OpenAI’s September “An Alien Mind” post and automated research intern reveal prioritize recursive self-improvement pipelines yet explicitly note uncertainty around safe, aligned full RSI. Competitive dynamics between the two, plus shared calls for verifiable slowdowns, highlight partial capability gains without crossing into autonomous successor design. Key near-term catalysts include any October developer updates or internal benchmark releases that could clarify timelines or trigger coordinated pacing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.

A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$540
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2028
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

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OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Wer kündigt als Erster rekursive Selbstverbesserung an?

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Erfüllt Google bis zum 31. Oktober die Evaluationsverpflichtung von Anthropic?

28%
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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