State Sen. David Brock Smith leads Oregon's Republican U.S. Senate primary trader consensus at 63.8% implied probability, driven by his incumbency in the state legislature, early March campaign launch, and endorsements like the News-Register's nod in mid-April, positioning him as the establishment choice with broader appeal against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley in November. Jo Rae Perkins holds 31% on her loyal activist base from past runs, including the 2020 nomination loss, though recent calls for party unity—such as rival Russell McAlmond's May 7 plea to consolidate against her—highlight vote-splitting risks among seven candidates. With ballots mailed April 29 and the May 19 primary approaching, traders weigh pre-election momentum amid limited public polling, emphasizing Brock Smith's path to victory in Oregon's vote-by-mail system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDavid Brock Smith 63.9%
Jo Rae Perkins 31%
Russell McAlmond 1.8%
Joe Johnson 1.4%
$89,008 Vol.
$89,008 Vol.
David Brock Smith
64%
Jo Rae Perkins
31%
Russell McAlmond
2%
Joe Johnson
1%
David Burch
1%
Deborah C. Brown
1%
Tim Skelton
1%
Brent Barker
<1%
Douglas T. Muck Jr.
<1%
David Brock Smith 63.9%
Jo Rae Perkins 31%
Russell McAlmond 1.8%
Joe Johnson 1.4%
$89,008 Vol.
$89,008 Vol.
David Brock Smith
64%
Jo Rae Perkins
31%
Russell McAlmond
2%
Joe Johnson
1%
David Burch
1%
Deborah C. Brown
1%
Tim Skelton
1%
Brent Barker
<1%
Douglas T. Muck Jr.
<1%
If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...State Sen. David Brock Smith leads Oregon's Republican U.S. Senate primary trader consensus at 63.8% implied probability, driven by his incumbency in the state legislature, early March campaign launch, and endorsements like the News-Register's nod in mid-April, positioning him as the establishment choice with broader appeal against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley in November. Jo Rae Perkins holds 31% on her loyal activist base from past runs, including the 2020 nomination loss, though recent calls for party unity—such as rival Russell McAlmond's May 7 plea to consolidate against her—highlight vote-splitting risks among seven candidates. With ballots mailed April 29 and the May 19 primary approaching, traders weigh pre-election momentum amid limited public polling, emphasizing Brock Smith's path to victory in Oregon's vote-by-mail system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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