Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since the February 28 outbreak have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial transits at roughly 5–10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily crossings often in single digits versus the normal 60. A U.S. naval blockade, elevated insurance premiums, and repeated attacks on vessels have stranded more than 1,500 ships and deterred major carriers, sustaining the market’s 57.5 percent implied probability that traffic will not reach normal volumes by July 31. Recent ceasefire talks produced only marginal, short-lived improvements in April, and no comprehensive de-escalation agreement has emerged. Traders are watching upcoming diplomatic signals, potential escorted-convoy expansions, and any shifts in Iranian naval posture for signs of sustained recovery.