**Turkey's ruling AKP-led coalition lacks the parliamentary supermajority required to advance a new constitution.** Amending or replacing the 1982 charter demands either 360 votes to trigger a referendum or 400 votes for direct passage—thresholds the government and its nationalist allies have not reached despite earlier efforts. President Erdoğan's May 2025 appointment of legal experts to draft proposals and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş's June 2026 public expectation of adoption in 2026–2027 reflect ongoing intent, yet no legislative timetable, committee process, or cross-party negotiations have materialized by mid-2026. Opposition parties remain firmly opposed, citing term-limit concerns and the risk of further presidential consolidation. Public surveys consistently show majority resistance to changes enabling another Erdoğan candidacy beyond 2028. With no scheduled elections until then and no recent breakthroughs in coalition arithmetic or opposition engagement, traders assign low probability to meaningful movement this calendar year.