Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to advance a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed to enact changes without one. Recent statements from the justice minister in early May 2026 renewed calls for a new charter amid PKK peace negotiations, yet no formal announcement, timeline, or parliamentary vote has materialized. President Erdogan has repeatedly framed the effort as a national priority detached from term-limit considerations, while opposition parties and procedural hurdles continue to constrain progress. Traders therefore assign the 65.5 percent probability to “No” through year-end, reflecting the absence of any decisive legislative trigger or coalition expansion capable of meeting constitutional thresholds by December 31, 2026.