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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná
Wahlen·Hauptwahl

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná
Wahlen·Hauptwahl

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná

Flavio Bolsonaro 93%

Lula 6.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket
NEU

Flavio Bolsonaro 93%

Lula 6.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,486 Vol.

93%

icon for Lula

Lula

$183 Vol.

6%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$184 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$266 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$340 Vol.

<1%

icon for Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$374 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$327 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$249 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 92.5% market price to finish first in Paraná’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote reflects recent state polling and structural factors. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 13–17 showed him at 44% against Lula’s 31%, with Renan Santos at 7% and all others at 4% or below, consistent with an earlier Quaest poll. Paraná’s conservative electorate, its fifth-largest voter base, and weak performance by the incumbent PT in 2022 underpin the positioning. Bolsonaro’s July PL nomination and emphasis on security and economic issues have consolidated right-leaning support. While national dynamics or unforeseen events could narrow the gap before election day, current evidence points to a durable lead in the state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$5,832
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 92.5% market price to finish first in Paraná’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote reflects recent state polling and structural factors. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 13–17 showed him at 44% against Lula’s 31%, with Renan Santos at 7% and all others at 4% or below, consistent with an earlier Quaest poll. Paraná’s conservative electorate, its fifth-largest voter base, and weak performance by the incumbent PT in 2022 underpin the positioning. Bolsonaro’s July PL nomination and emphasis on security and economic issues have consolidated right-leaning support. While national dynamics or unforeseen events could narrow the gap before election day, current evidence points to a durable lead in the state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$5,832
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl in São Paulo die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl in São Paulo die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

88%
Ja
icon for Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Bahia gewinnen?

Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Bahia gewinnen?

98%
Ja
icon for Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Paraíba bekommen?

Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Paraíba bekommen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 93%, gefolgt von „Lula" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 93¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 93% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 17, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná" ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 93%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 93% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Lula" mit 6%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Paraná" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.