Recent benchmark leadership and rapid model iterations from Anthropic have driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability that its Claude Opus or Sonnet variants will rank as the second-best large language model by end of June. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series maintains the top position across many intelligence indexes, while Anthropic’s February and April releases delivered standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, and extended context handling, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and others on several enterprise-relevant metrics. This positioning reflects sustained competitive gaps rather than any single announcement, with traders monitoring upcoming developer conferences and potential June releases that could narrow or widen the current hierarchy before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

15%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

15%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent benchmark leadership and rapid model iterations from Anthropic have driven trader consensus toward a 71.5% implied probability that its Claude Opus or Sonnet variants will rank as the second-best large language model by end of June. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series maintains the top position across many intelligence indexes, while Anthropic’s February and April releases delivered standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, and extended context handling, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and others on several enterprise-relevant metrics. This positioning reflects sustained competitive gaps rather than any single announcement, with traders monitoring upcoming developer conferences and potential June releases that could narrow or widen the current hierarchy before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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