OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, which quickly topped multiple benchmarks for general reasoning and multimodal tasks, has solidified its position as the leading large language model, shifting trader focus to which competitor will rank second by end of June. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 variants lead in demonstrated coding and agentic workflow performance on benchmarks such as SWE-bench, supported by their 1-million-token context windows and recent optimizations for long-horizon tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remains a close contender through its strength in accuracy and reasoning evaluations, while xAI's Grok 4.3 updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark gains. With no major model launches reported in the past two weeks, the market-implied odds reflect sustained competitive positioning ahead of the June resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 75%
Google 18%
OpenAI 6.4%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.

Anthropic
75%

18%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Alibaba
1%

Meta
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 18%
OpenAI 6.4%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.

Anthropic
75%

18%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Alibaba
1%

Meta
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, which quickly topped multiple benchmarks for general reasoning and multimodal tasks, has solidified its position as the leading large language model, shifting trader focus to which competitor will rank second by end of June. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 variants lead in demonstrated coding and agentic workflow performance on benchmarks such as SWE-bench, supported by their 1-million-token context windows and recent optimizations for long-horizon tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro remains a close contender through its strength in accuracy and reasoning evaluations, while xAI's Grok 4.3 updates have not yet produced comparable benchmark gains. With no major model launches reported in the past two weeks, the market-implied odds reflect sustained competitive positioning ahead of the June resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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