Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence underpins the 93.4% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, with credible reports confirming the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and new foldable model launching in September alongside the usual hardware upgrades such as the A20 chip. Recent leaks indicate Apple is splitting the lineup to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage supply constraints, pushing only the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants into spring 2027. This strategy aligns with historical patterns of staggered premium releases while preserving the core 2026 timeline for high-margin devices. Traders view any full-year skip as improbable absent major disruption, though last-minute naming or scheduling shifts could still arise before the fall event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$96,385 Vol.
$96,385 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$96,385 Vol.
$96,385 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence underpins the 93.4% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, with credible reports confirming the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and new foldable model launching in September alongside the usual hardware upgrades such as the A20 chip. Recent leaks indicate Apple is splitting the lineup to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage supply constraints, pushing only the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants into spring 2027. This strategy aligns with historical patterns of staggered premium releases while preserving the core 2026 timeline for high-margin devices. Traders view any full-year skip as improbable absent major disruption, though last-minute naming or scheduling shifts could still arise before the fall event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$96,385Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence underpins the 93.4% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, with credible reports confirming the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and new foldable model launching in September alongside the usual hardware upgrades such as the A20 chip. Recent leaks indicate Apple is splitting the lineup to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage supply constraints, pushing only the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants into spring 2027. This strategy aligns with historical patterns of staggered premium releases while preserving the core 2026 timeline for high-margin devices. Traders view any full-year skip as improbable absent major disruption, though last-minute naming or scheduling shifts could still arise before the fall event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$96,385Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual flagship smartphone cadence underpins the 93.4% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, with credible reports confirming the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and new foldable model launching in September alongside the usual hardware upgrades such as the A20 chip. Recent leaks indicate Apple is splitting the lineup to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage supply constraints, pushing only the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants into spring 2027. This strategy aligns with historical patterns of staggered premium releases while preserving the core 2026 timeline for high-margin devices. Traders view any full-year skip as improbable absent major disruption, though last-minute naming or scheduling shifts could still arise before the fall event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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