Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeines im Jahr 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.7%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
57%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Keines im Jahr 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.7%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
$10,084 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
32%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$54,452Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$54,452Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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