Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because leading large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google currently sit in the 1500–1525 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with only incremental gains observed through mid-2026 despite new releases like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 variants. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 12.5% due to its consistent edge in recent agentic and coding benchmarks, yet even its top models require substantial further capability jumps that face technical and scaling hurdles. Google and OpenAI trail at 7.3% and 3.6% amid competitive positioning and mixed release timelines, while smaller labs show even less momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include fall model updates and developer conferences, but market-implied odds reflect skepticism that any single lab will clear the 1550 threshold before year-end given current trajectories.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeines im Jahr 2026 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.3%
OpenAI 3.8%
$112,671 Vol.
$112,671 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
79%
Anthropic
13%
7%
OpenAI
4%
Z.ai
1%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
Keines im Jahr 2026 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.3%
OpenAI 3.8%
$112,671 Vol.
$112,671 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
$24,905 Vol.
79%
Anthropic
$12,846 Vol.
13%
$10,793 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$13,006 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$9,533 Vol.
1%
xAI
$8,832 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,616 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,666 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because leading large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google currently sit in the 1500–1525 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with only incremental gains observed through mid-2026 despite new releases like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 variants. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 12.5% due to its consistent edge in recent agentic and coding benchmarks, yet even its top models require substantial further capability jumps that face technical and scaling hurdles. Google and OpenAI trail at 7.3% and 3.6% amid competitive positioning and mixed release timelines, while smaller labs show even less momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include fall model updates and developer conferences, but market-implied odds reflect skepticism that any single lab will clear the 1550 threshold before year-end given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$112,671Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because leading large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google currently sit in the 1500–1525 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with only incremental gains observed through mid-2026 despite new releases like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 variants. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 12.5% due to its consistent edge in recent agentic and coding benchmarks, yet even its top models require substantial further capability jumps that face technical and scaling hurdles. Google and OpenAI trail at 7.3% and 3.6% amid competitive positioning and mixed release timelines, while smaller labs show even less momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include fall model updates and developer conferences, but market-implied odds reflect skepticism that any single lab will clear the 1550 threshold before year-end given current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$112,671Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because leading large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google currently sit in the 1500–1525 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with only incremental gains observed through mid-2026 despite new releases like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 variants. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 12.5% due to its consistent edge in recent agentic and coding benchmarks, yet even its top models require substantial further capability jumps that face technical and scaling hurdles. Google and OpenAI trail at 7.3% and 3.6% amid competitive positioning and mixed release timelines, while smaller labs show even less momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include fall model updates and developer conferences, but market-implied odds reflect skepticism that any single lab will clear the 1550 threshold before year-end given current trajectories.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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