Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeines im Jahr 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

Keines im Jahr 2026
57%

Anthropic
33%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Keines im Jahr 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

Keines im Jahr 2026
57%

Anthropic
33%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus places a 57.5% implied probability on no large language model reaching 1550 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the substantial gap between current top artificial intelligence scores and this demanding benchmark threshold. Anthropic leads company-specific odds at 33% thanks to its Claude models' demonstrated strengths in consistent high-quality performance and targeted scaling efforts. Google follows at 10.5% amid its broad research resources, while OpenAI and xAI sit lower amid competitive pressures and typical product timelines. Key upcoming model releases and third-party evaluations could influence these probabilities as development cycles unfold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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