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icon for Will Claude go down on __ days in July?
Tech·Outage

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

icon for Will Claude go down on __ days in July?
Tech·Outage

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

Juni 30

Juli 31

Juni 30

Juli 31

12+ 45%

6-8 43%

3-5 43%

0-2 42%

Polymarket
NEU

12+ 45%

6-8 43%

3-5 43%

0-2 42%

Polymarket
NEU

0-2

$0 Vol.

42%

3-5

$0 Vol.

43%

6-8

$0 Vol.

43%

9-11

$0 Vol.

42%

12+

$0 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages across Claude services in June—including major disruptions on June 2, 18, and 23 affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus—have heightened trader focus on Anthropic’s infrastructure resilience amid surging demand. These incidents, often tied to elevated error rates, networking issues, and high-traffic agentic workloads, follow similar events earlier in 2026 and have eroded confidence in consistent uptime despite reported 99.3–99.6% figures over recent quarters. With closely matched probabilities across downtime ranges, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing engineering fixes, capacity upgrades, and model optimizations will stabilize performance in July or if continued growth and scaling will trigger additional incidents.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages across Claude services in June—including major disruptions on June 2, 18, and 23 affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus—have heightened trader focus on Anthropic’s infrastructure resilience amid surging demand. These incidents, often tied to elevated error rates, networking issues, and high-traffic agentic workloads, follow similar events earlier in 2026 and have eroded confidence in consistent uptime despite reported 99.3–99.6% figures over recent quarters. With closely matched probabilities across downtime ranges, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing engineering fixes, capacity upgrades, and model optimizations will stabilize performance in July or if continued growth and scaling will trigger additional incidents.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will Claude go down on __ days in July?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „12+" mit 45%, gefolgt von „6-8" mit 44%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 45¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Will Claude go down on __ days in July?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jun 30, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Will Claude go down on __ days in July?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Will Claude go down on __ days in July?" ist „12+" mit 45%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „6-8" mit 44%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Will Claude go down on __ days in July?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.