Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12+ downtime days for Claude at 42% implied probability, closely trailed by 6-8 days at 35.5%, reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains as it scales large language models like Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok. In May's first 14 days, official status reports confirm incidents on at least five dates—May 4, 8, 9, 12, and 13—involving elevated error rates on Claude.ai, Claude Code partial outages, and file operations, often resolved within hours but signaling capacity limits amid surging demand. With 17 days remaining, key swing factors include potential fixes from recent monitoring or unexpected surges; historical patterns of 96 outages since January underscore reliability as Anthropic's differentiating challenge versus stabler rivals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert12+ 42%
6-8 35.1%
9-11 30%
3-5 5.5%
$33,401 Vol.
$33,401 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
3-5
6%
6-8
35%
9-11
30%
12+
42%
12+ 42%
6-8 35.1%
9-11 30%
3-5 5.5%
$33,401 Vol.
$33,401 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
3-5
$3,768 Vol.
6%
6-8
$1,093 Vol.
35%
9-11
$659 Vol.
30%
12+
$4,982 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12+ downtime days for Claude at 42% implied probability, closely trailed by 6-8 days at 35.5%, reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains as it scales large language models like Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok. In May's first 14 days, official status reports confirm incidents on at least five dates—May 4, 8, 9, 12, and 13—involving elevated error rates on Claude.ai, Claude Code partial outages, and file operations, often resolved within hours but signaling capacity limits amid surging demand. With 17 days remaining, key swing factors include potential fixes from recent monitoring or unexpected surges; historical patterns of 96 outages since January underscore reliability as Anthropic's differentiating challenge versus stabler rivals.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$33,401Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12+ downtime days for Claude at 42% implied probability, closely trailed by 6-8 days at 35.5%, reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains as it scales large language models like Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok. In May's first 14 days, official status reports confirm incidents on at least five dates—May 4, 8, 9, 12, and 13—involving elevated error rates on Claude.ai, Claude Code partial outages, and file operations, often resolved within hours but signaling capacity limits amid surging demand. With 17 days remaining, key swing factors include potential fixes from recent monitoring or unexpected surges; historical patterns of 96 outages since January underscore reliability as Anthropic's differentiating challenge versus stabler rivals.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$33,401Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12+ downtime days for Claude at 42% implied probability, closely trailed by 6-8 days at 35.5%, reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains as it scales large language models like Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok. In May's first 14 days, official status reports confirm incidents on at least five dates—May 4, 8, 9, 12, and 13—involving elevated error rates on Claude.ai, Claude Code partial outages, and file operations, often resolved within hours but signaling capacity limits amid surging demand. With 17 days remaining, key swing factors include potential fixes from recent monitoring or unexpected surges; historical patterns of 96 outages since January underscore reliability as Anthropic's differentiating challenge versus stabler rivals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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