The U.S. administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion rather than military action. Following the January fuel blockade and executive order targeting oil suppliers, the United States has expanded sanctions on Cuban entities, including the tourism ministry and state companies in July, while indicting former leader Raúl Castro in May. These steps, alongside diplomatic contacts such as the CIA director’s March visit to Havana, have produced widespread blackouts and shortages but no deployment of U.S. forces. Analysts and Pentagon planning assessments continue to describe a full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario, with trader pricing reflecting the established preference for sanctions, secondary tariffs, and regime-change signaling short of direct intervention.