Oklahoma City’s league-best 64-18 regular-season record and top Western Conference seed have anchored trader consensus at 58.5 percent, reflecting the Thunder’s elite defense, depth, and continuity around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. The San Antonio Spurs sit second at 23.2 percent after finishing 62-20 and advancing deep into the playoffs with strong recent form and home-court advantages in the Western Conference Finals. The New York Knicks hold 14.2 percent on the strength of their Eastern Conference lead and series dominance, while the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers remain long shots at 3.8 percent and 1.9 percent despite competitive regular-season showings. These probabilities capture the wisdom of crowds evaluating roster health, matchup history, and current playoff momentum heading into the conference finals.