Recent July employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations of modest gains while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% amid a labor force participation drop to 61.4%, anchors trader sentiment for the August reading. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.3% as participants weigh softening hiring trends and elevated initial claims near 209,000 against limited evidence of accelerating layoffs. Consensus forecasts from professional surveys anticipate stability near 4.2–4.3%, with the September 4 release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst and potential revisions to prior months adding volatility to near-term pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.1% 34%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 12%
$13,417 Vol.
$13,417 Vol.
4 sep 2026
≤3.8%
<1%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
12%
4.1%
34%
4.2%
31%
4.3%
25%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
2%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 34%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 12%
$13,417 Vol.
$13,417 Vol.
4 sep 2026
≤3.8%
$323 Vol.
<1%
3.9%
$424 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$1,517 Vol.
12%
4.1%
$4,322 Vol.
34%
4.2%
$2,636 Vol.
31%
4.3%
$2,857 Vol.
25%
4.4%
$568 Vol.
2%
4.5%
$380 Vol.
2%
≥4.6%
$389 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations of modest gains while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% amid a labor force participation drop to 61.4%, anchors trader sentiment for the August reading. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.3% as participants weigh softening hiring trends and elevated initial claims near 209,000 against limited evidence of accelerating layoffs. Consensus forecasts from professional surveys anticipate stability near 4.2–4.3%, with the September 4 release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst and potential revisions to prior months adding volatility to near-term pricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volumen
$13,417Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations of modest gains while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% amid a labor force participation drop to 61.4%, anchors trader sentiment for the August reading. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.3% as participants weigh softening hiring trends and elevated initial claims near 209,000 against limited evidence of accelerating layoffs. Consensus forecasts from professional surveys anticipate stability near 4.2–4.3%, with the September 4 release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst and potential revisions to prior months adding volatility to near-term pricing.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$13,417Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations of modest gains while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% amid a labor force participation drop to 61.4%, anchors trader sentiment for the August reading. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1–4.3% as participants weigh softening hiring trends and elevated initial claims near 209,000 against limited evidence of accelerating layoffs. Consensus forecasts from professional surveys anticipate stability near 4.2–4.3%, with the September 4 release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst and potential revisions to prior months adding volatility to near-term pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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