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icon for Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California

Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California

icon for Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California

Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California

66% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

66% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make the state's top marginal income tax rates on high earners permanent through Proposition 3, extending the structure first approved in 2012 and extended via Proposition 55 until 2031. The measure would lock in rates from 10.3% to 12.3% for individuals above roughly $360,000-$721,000, directing the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K–12 schools and community colleges. The proposition qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with substantial early support funding, building on repeated voter backing for the existing surcharge while facing opposition tied to concerns over tax permanence, revenue stability, and effects on high-income migration and investment. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for approval.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volumen
$2,224
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make the state's top marginal income tax rates on high earners permanent through Proposition 3, extending the structure first approved in 2012 and extended via Proposition 55 until 2031. The measure would lock in rates from 10.3% to 12.3% for individuals above roughly $360,000-$721,000, directing the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K–12 schools and community colleges. The proposition qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with substantial early support funding, building on repeated voter backing for the existing surcharge while facing opposition tied to concerns over tax permanence, revenue stability, and effects on high-income migration and investment. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for approval.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volumen
$2,224
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Propuesta de Impuesto Permanente para Altos Ingresos en California" con 61%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jul 1, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California" es "Propuesta de Impuesto Permanente para Altos Ingresos en California" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Propuesta de impuestos permanentes para altos ingresos de California" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.