Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted WTI crude to around $88-89 per barrel and Brent to $96 as of November 13, 2026, up sharply from 2025 averages near $60-65 but still 39% below the 2008 all-time high of $145. Low global inventories, constrained tanker capacity, and elevated transportation costs have tightened near-term balances despite a rebound in Gulf exports that eased October peaks above $110-130. U.S. production is on track for a record 13.9 million barrels per day in 2026, while EIA forecasts point to Brent averaging near $100 through year-end before easing in 2027 as supplies normalize. Traders are monitoring upcoming EIA inventory data, OPEC+ decisions, and any escalation in regional conflicts for shifts in implied probabilities.