Belgium's superior squad depth, attacking firepower, and unbeaten qualifying campaign have established them as the clear frontrunner to top Group G, reflected in the market's 67% implied probability. Recent March 2026 friendlies, including a 5-2 victory over the United States, reinforced their momentum even without key players. Egypt sits second in trader consensus at 17% due to their strong African qualifying record and disciplined form, though they face a tough opener against Belgium. Iran's 8.6% probability accounts for solid AFC qualification but recent geopolitical tensions that could affect preparation and morale ahead of matches in California and Seattle. New Zealand trails at 3.4% as the lowest-ranked side, with limited recent results hampered by injuries and a challenging schedule starting against Iran.