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icon for ¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?

¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?

icon for ¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?

¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?

jul 13

jul 14

jul 15

jul 13

jul 14

jul 15

30°C 42%

31°C 27%

29°C 21%

32°C 6.1%

Polymarket
NUEVO

30°C 42%

31°C 27%

29°C 21%

32°C 6.1%

Polymarket
NUEVO

24°C or below

$213 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$231 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$219 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$174 Vol.

1%

28°C

$262 Vol.

5%

29°C

$230 Vol.

21%

30°C

$339 Vol.

42%

31°C

$341 Vol.

27%

32°C

$455 Vol.

6%

33°C

$340 Vol.

2%

34°C or higher

$1,109 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,915
Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,915
Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "30°C" con 42%, seguido de "31°C" con 27%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 42¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jul 13, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?" es "30°C" con 42%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "31°C" con 27%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 15 de julio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.