Trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty around the weekly count of magnitude 5.5+ events, with market-implied probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from ≤6 to >12. This stems from the inherently variable global seismicity rate, where background tectonic activity along major plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire typically produces a handful of such quakes in any five-day window, modulated by Poisson-like randomness. Recent aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity zones could shift totals, while USGS monitoring provides the definitive magnitude and timing data for resolution. No dominant cluster or swarm has emerged to anchor expectations more firmly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 14 al 19 de julio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 14 al 19 de julio?
>12 49%
≤6 48%
7 38%
10 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 jul 2026
≤6
48%
7
38%
8
38%
9
38%
10
38%
11
38%
12
38%
>12
49%
>12 49%
≤6 48%
7 38%
10 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 jul 2026
≤6
$0 Vol.
48%
7
$0 Vol.
38%
8
$0 Vol.
38%
9
$0 Vol.
38%
10
$0 Vol.
38%
11
$0 Vol.
38%
12
$0 Vol.
38%
>12
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty around the weekly count of magnitude 5.5+ events, with market-implied probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from ≤6 to >12. This stems from the inherently variable global seismicity rate, where background tectonic activity along major plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire typically produces a handful of such quakes in any five-day window, modulated by Poisson-like randomness. Recent aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity zones could shift totals, while USGS monitoring provides the definitive magnitude and timing data for resolution. No dominant cluster or swarm has emerged to anchor expectations more firmly.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jul 13, 2026, 8:53 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
19 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 8:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty around the weekly count of magnitude 5.5+ events, with market-implied probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from ≤6 to >12. This stems from the inherently variable global seismicity rate, where background tectonic activity along major plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire typically produces a handful of such quakes in any five-day window, modulated by Poisson-like randomness. Recent aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity zones could shift totals, while USGS monitoring provides the definitive magnitude and timing data for resolution. No dominant cluster or swarm has emerged to anchor expectations more firmly.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
19 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 8:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty around the weekly count of magnitude 5.5+ events, with market-implied probabilities clustered near 50% across bins from ≤6 to >12. This stems from the inherently variable global seismicity rate, where background tectonic activity along major plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire typically produces a handful of such quakes in any five-day window, modulated by Poisson-like randomness. Recent aftershock sequences or quiet periods in high-activity zones could shift totals, while USGS monitoring provides the definitive magnitude and timing data for resolution. No dominant cluster or swarm has emerged to anchor expectations more firmly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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