Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 21?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 21?
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
82-83°F 22%
84-85°F 9%
NUEVO
$19,516 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,516 Vol.
21 jul 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
29%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
82-83°F 22%
84-85°F 9%
NUEVO
$19,516 Vol.
NUEVO
$19,516 Vol.
21 jul 2026
73°F or below
$684 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$821 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$1,391 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$3,864 Vol.
29%
80-81°F
$5,643 Vol.
41%
82-83°F
$1,621 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$1,607 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$1,247 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$1,105 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$1,278 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$262 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volumen
$19,516Fecha de finalización
21 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,516Fecha de finalización
21 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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